The Strokes Gained report: A deep dive into tpc southwind
This week marked the opening event of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup Playoffs. For those that don’t know, the playoffs feature a high-stakes, progressive field where the top 70 players from the regular season are whittled down to 50, and ultimately the final 30 for the Tour Championship.
The action kicked off at the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. Consistently ranking among the toughest tests on the schedule, TPC Southwind gives us a perfect backdrop for a deep dive into the numbers.
Here is what the Strokes Gained data revealed this week—and what you can steal from the pros to lower your own scores. (If you missed our post breaking down how Strokes Gained is calculated, catch up on the fundamentals first!)
Without further ado, let’s dive into the data.
1. TPC Southwind Was a Brutal Test Off the Tee
On a typical PGA Tour venue, Off-the-Tee performance accounts for roughly 14% of the scoring separation between the top and bottom of the field. At TPC Southwind, that separation spiked to a massive 22%.What does this mean exactly? Well, this essentially means that the best player in the field drove it 14% better than the guy who came last. That separation was a significant amount larger this week.
Why the sudden jump? Simply put, Penalty areas. With water hazards guarding driving zones across the property, driver demands were relentless. Players driving it well found more scoring opportunities, while anyone missing fairways paid an immediate price in penalty strokes.
The best player off the tee this week was Ludvig Åberg. He provided a masterclass in driver control, gaining +1.18 strokes per round off the tee alone on his way to a T7 finish.
The Amateur Takeaway:
Penalty strokes destroy scorecards faster than short drives ever will. Think about your home course: where are the water hazards and out-of-bounds stakes? Are you finding them regularly trying to squeeze out extra distance? Backing off to a safer club off the tee takes stroke-and-distance penalties out of play and instantly raises your baseline score.
Ludvig gained the most amount of strokes at the FedEx St. Jude Classic this week
2. Putter Not Required
What do Tommy Fleetwood, Jake Knapp, and Hideki Matsuyama all have in common from this week? All three finished inside the Top 10 despite losing strokes to the field with their putter. (Yes, you read that right)
We see this pattern week after week on the PGA Tour. High-level finishes are regularly built on dominant ball-striking rather than hot putters. In fact, across the entire ShotLink era, a player has never won a PGA Tour event losing strokes from tee-to-green, yet players win with sub-par putting performances all the time. It completely dismantles the old "drive for show, putt for dough" cliché.
However, before you run to the driving range to nuke 100 drivers, there is a catch for amateurs:
On Tour: Pros operate at an elite baseline. They rarely three-putt, and they make roughly 50% of their 8-footers. Because their putting floor is so high, getting the ball closer to the hole with their Driver and irons yields immediate rewards.
For Amateurs: Putting is often where massive strokes are leaked through three-putts and missed shorties. Until an amateur establishes a reliable baseline on the greens, hitting it slightly longer off the tee won't fix the scorecard.
Tracking your stats reveals whether your biggest scoring leaks come from ball-striking penalties or green-reading errors.
Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Jake Knapp all finished in the top 10 despite putting worse then the rest of the field.
3. Limiting the "Poor Shots"
This is one of the most revealing and advanced metrics in golf: comparing a player's top 5% of shots (Great Shots) against their bottom 5% (Poor Shots).
Simply put, we analyse the shots that gained the most ground against the field versus the catastrophic swings that lost the most.
The data from TPC Southwind showed that the players at the top of the leaderboard didn't actually hit significantly more "Great Shots" than the players who barely made the weekend.
The difference was the amount of poor shots players hit. The data showed the following:
The top 5 Finishers: Averaged fewer than 1 "Poor Shot" per round COMBINED.
Whereas the bottom of the Field: Averaged up to 6 "Poor Shots" per round.
Great golf isn't about hitting as many good shots as you can—it’s about taking fewer bad ones.
The Amateur Takeaway:
If you find yourself in the trees 170 meters out with a tight window, your highest-percentage play is punching out sideways to guarantee you take double-bogey or worse off the table. If you have a 140-meter approach to a pin tucked near water, shift your target to the fat part of the green.
Smart target selection and risk management are decisions the best players in the world make on every swing—and it's the fastest way for an amateur to shave strokes without changing their swing mechanics.
Ready to stop guessing and start knowing where your strokes are actually going? Whether you want to benchmark your game against target handicaps or map out a high-performance practice plan, tracking your data is the single fastest way to lower your scores.
Head over to our coaching page to book your statistical assessment today, or reach out to see how we use Strokes Gained and 3D motion tracking to transform your game.
Until next week, play smart and happy golfing!
Stuart
Head Coach, The Pin Hunter’s Playbook
